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sn#175061 filedate 1975-08-24 generic text, type T, neo UTF8
00100 SOME SHOCKING PROPOSALS
00200
00300
00400 Here are some propositions about the state of the world.
00500
00600 1. The state of the world has been getting worse lately.
00700 More and more people are ruled by governments they didn't choose and
00800 from which they are not allowed to escape.
00900
01000 2. It is not clear how far this will go. The countries that
01100 have fallen under Communist dictatorships recently were in special
01200 circumstances, so maybe not many more bad things will happen.
01300 Nevertheless, there is cause for worry, but many people who don't
01400 want to take defensive measures find reasons for their nonchalance.
01500 They may be right.
01600
01700 3. The immediate cause of the fall of Vietnam was the failure
01800 of the U.S. Congress, supported by the overwhelming majority of the
01900 American people, to carry out its commitments. The Vietnamese
02000 military collapse is somewhat less discreditable as the French
02100 collapse in 1940. The failure of the Vietnamese armed forces to
02200 fight when abandoned is as much proof that they "ought" to live under
02300 communism was the French collapse a proof that the French should live
02400 under Hitler.
02500
02600 4. While the American people were wrong in not living up to
02700 their commitments which had become a trivial expense, the other
02800 non-communist countries which either never helped at all or quit long
02900 ago are much more to blame.
03000
03100 5. The basic fault was that the U.S. undertook unlimited
03200 commitments to its allies without demanding anything in return. The
03300 most dramatic illustration of this arrogant mistake might be taken as
03400 Kennedy's "Ich bin ein Berliner" speech which demnded nothing from a
03500 prosperous Germany for an unlimited U.S. commitment. This gave
03600 European politicians any easy way out. They could compete in finding
03700 reasons for political and military irresponsibility.
03800 In fact, any European politician who dared say that his country should
03900 help prevent a Communist takeover of Vietnam was sure to be beaten, as
04000 long as the U.S. itself made no demands.
04100
04200 Here are some proposals for repairing this one-sided
04300 situation.
04400
04500 6. The U.S. should withdraw from West Berlin and tell the
04600 Germans that they can defend it themselves. If they want us to help
04700 dOfend it, they must do something substantial in return. For
04800 example, 40,000 German troops should replace the 40,000 American
04900 troops in Korea with German logistical support. Otherwise, they can
05000 see if their Ostpolitik will defend Berlin. The reason for picking
05100 on the Germans here is not that they have behaved especially badly -
05200 others have behaved worse, but simply because something of theirs may
05300 be threatened, and they may have a motive for paying a large price
05400 for our support.
05500
05600 Keeping 300,000 U.S. soldiers in Europe as a symbol of our
05700 determination to defend Europe so many years after Europe has recovered
05800 from World War II seems irrational. After all, Western Europe has
05900 a larger population and a stronger industry than the Communist countries
06000 taken together, omitting China. One rationalization was that the
06100 unilateral U.S. commitment meant that Europe would not have to acquire
06200 its own nuclear weapons, and it was considered especially desirable
06300 that Germany not acquire nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, although the
06400 NATO alliance originally operated, and some of its members helped
06500 in the Korean war, the unilateral nature of the U.S. commitment eventually
06600 corrupted it, and it is now worthless.
06700
06800 Therefore, Western Europe must take the responsibility for its
06900 own defense even if it involves West Germany making its own nuclear
07000 weapons. There is an outside chance that the Russians might make some
07100 serious concessions in order to avoid Germany getting nuclear weapons.
07200
07300 Of course, NATO might be maintained if the other members are
07400 willing to do their share for the common defense. The most obvious
07500 requirement is that they should pledge to defend the existence of
07600 Israel within its pre 1967 borders with all that implies in terms of
07650 forcible resistance to oil blackmail.
07700
07800 7. The U.S. should declare that it will not defend Yugoslavia
07900 without some help from Yugoslavia in the Middle East. Apart from the
08000 Soviet Union itself, Yugoslavia has done more harm in the Middle East
08100 than any other Eastern European country.
08200
08300 8. South Korea helped in Vietnam, it is a better place to
08400 live than North Korea (this is shown both by economic statistics and
08500 by the fact that North Korea has to impose emwgration control, not
08600 the other way around), and it is probably quite effective in its own
08700 defense, and therefore it deserves help. Nevertheless, if it is
08800 attacked in the near future, it can probably be defended only if a
08900 very high level of immediate violence is quickly successful. Any
09000 protracted conflict may lead to the Congress denying even arms.
09100 President Park has declared that if the U.S. abandons South Korea,
09200 then South Korea will acquire nuclear weapons. None of the
09300 prognosticators of international affairs have taken this threat into
09400 their calculations. The proposals by Reischauer for a conference
09500 about Korea of the Soviet Union, Japan, China, and the U.S. seem to
09600 be preparations for a Munich, and will become realistic if the
09700 Democrats get power. The Japanese left seems to favor a new Korean
09800 war, and Prime Minister Miki speaks of the Korean people's demand for
09900 national unity without the slightest hint that they might also demand
10000 economic and political freedom. (In South Korea, a government
10100 campaign harassing an opposition newspaper by persuading businesses
10200 not to advertise in it has just ended. In North Korea, there never
10300 has been an opposition newspaper and there isn't even freedom not to
10400 praise the all-wise Kim Il Sung. This comparison must always be
10500 made.).
10600
10700 Under these circumstances, posessing their own nuclear
10800 weapons may be South Korea's best chance of survival. Certainly Ford
10900 can give no credible assurances. I would have confidence in an
11000 American commitment only if it were backed by a formal referendum of
11100 the American people. This seems like a fantastic idea, but if the
11200 Korean intention were credible, and if the dangers to us of there
11300 being a small country faced by an irrational aging dictator whose
11400 survival depends on nuclear weapons, then we might make a solid
11500 commitment in order to obviate the danger. Those who are worried
11600 about the spread of nuclear weapons should also consider the dangers
11700 of a situation in which every country has to defend itself as best it
11800 can, because there is no collective security. It is unrealistic to
11900 imagine the U.S. giving the South Koreans nuclear weapons, but I
12000 think we should also refrain from trying to kid them into a false
12100 sense of security. Some of the same consideration apply to Taiwan,
12200 but for the time being, the "People's Republic" seems more in
12300 interested in its internal affairs than in military adventures. Of
12400 course, Kim may only have been bluffing, but would you count on it if
12500 you were a South Korean?
12600
12700 7. The above three proposals are no doubt shocking, but a
12800 shock is necessary. Otherwise, the non-communist countries will
12900 continue doing nothing in their own defense, and expressing mild
13000 alarm when the U.S. goes back on commitments. The Ford-Kissinger
13100 policy of trying to shore up those unilateral commitments and make
13200 them credible, only postpones the day of reckoning.
13300
13400 8. It is stupid for any country to bet its independence on
13500 the continued mutual enmity of China and the Soviet Union. Maybe
13600 this enmity will continue, but each country has an aging leadership
13700 waiting for the others to die, and when they to die, there is
13800 absolutely no telling what their successors will do. In fact, if the
13900 Kruschev memoirs are an indicationk, they successors are so busy
14000 maintaining the patronage of the present rulers that they have not
14100 even seriously thought about what they will do. The possibilities
14200 range from liberalization to fanaticism.
14300
14400 9. Prediction in world affairs or even domestic politics is
14500 an uncertain business, and it is important to admit it. Politicians
14600 are overly tempted to base their policies on choosing a single future
14700 scenario.
14800
14900 10. While the number of Communist dictatorships has
15000 increased, and there is an increased threat to liberal civilization
15100 throughout they world, these dangers are not primarily due to
15200 increased activity by the big Communist powers - the Soviet Union and
15300 China. They have continued to tell lies about the West, and they
15400 have continued to supply arms to any countries and movements that
15500 will attack the West, they have not a taken any initiative. On the
15600 other hand, it is unrealistic of Kissinger to expect positive
15700 co-operation from them.
15800
15900 11. Moynihan (Commentary, March 1975) is right in saying that
16000 present revolutionary ideology is in a large degree a descendant of
16100 the British left wing ideology, but he doesn't sufficiently emphasize
16200 the anti-democratic mutations this ideology has undergone.
16300
16400 12. Current left-wing ideology is characterized by regarding
16500 society as a conspiracy of enemies rather than as a machine to be
16600 improved or replaced. It knows better who it hates than what it
16700 wants to make of the world. To the extent that people adopt it, they
16800 are immune to criticisms of the effects of their policies on the
16900 people they are supposed to help. It is enough that they kill they
17000 people they are supposed to kill.
17100
17200 13. I fear that the previous paragraph is only one side of
17300 the elephant. Probably a clear understanding of contemporary leftism
17400 and the circumstances of its appeal is the largest single chance of
17500 avoiding dictatorships. If this ideology could be defeated in the
17600 American intellectual community, all other problems could probably be
17700 solved.
17800
17900 The ideas advanced in these notes could be supported with
18000 many arguments. It is not claimed that they are now in a state to
18100 convince someone of widely differing views. Rather they are
18200 submitted in the hopes of a useful response from others who have been
18300 thinking along similar lines.
18400
18500 14. The beginning of political wisdom is to understand that
18600 a bad thing happened when 15 million South Vietnamese were conquered
18700 by an army from with they repeatedly fled. The beginning of the
18800 beginning of wisdom is to deplore the similar process taking place
18900 in Portugal. It is important to understand why so many who were
19000 eager for the Communists to conquer South Vietnam, object (verbally)
19100 to a Communist conquest of Portugal. The main thing is that election
19200 with such a small pro-Communist vote. Now there were such elections
19300 in South Vietnam with similar results, but the liberals were not
19400 convinced because the left attacked the fairness of the election and
19500 boycotted it. The Portuguese election was carried out under the control
19600 of the Communists and they were unable to convincingly attack the
19700 results. Unfortunately, the Communists will not again make the
19800 mistake of conducting an honest election themselves even given
19900 control of the newspapers.
20000 Quite possibly, calling them off after discovering a C.I.A. plot
20100 would have averted much of the liberal criticism.